Siddharth Pai
Workers in the information technology (IT) industry worry about the decline in computer programming jobs due to the rise of automation and artificial intelligence (AI). Many former stalwarts are spelling doom for the industry. Consulting house McKinsey made a prediction circa 2018 that was even more dire, and which encompassed more than just the computer programming profession. It said that 51% of present jobs can already be made obsolete—not by technology that is over the horizon, but by technology that is available today, thereby saving the world’s capitalists almost $15 trillion in wages.
People spinning or weaving fabrics lost their jobs after Eli Whitney invented the cotton gin in 1794 and several bank cashiers faced the same after the ATM was invented. History has proven time and again that a revolution such as this simply changes the nature of human work in the long term (after the excruciatingly painful short-term effects of job displacement have worked themselves out). To most, the smart thing to do would be to stop suggesting computer programming as a future profession to todays’ children unless they’re sure they will be genius scientists.
But this prediction of the ‘end of work’ is difficult to swallow when one concurrently hears that the world economy is healthy and that at least the US has managed a “soft landing” without a recession. Meanwhile, India’s Nifty stock Index has grown by 20% over 2023.
Where, then, is the disconnect? Robert Reich, the former United States Secretary of Labor, suggested in a speech at Google’s offices after Donald Trump’s first win in 2016 at the Presidential hustings that the reduction in median incomes in the counties that overwhelmingly voted for President Donald Trump was caused not by ‘globalisation’, which Trump ranted against, but by the inexorable rise of technology, and its almost insidious spread into every field of human endeavour. This rise of technology was evident even then, and is more so the case today, with the rise of other types of automation and AI.
My son, who runs his own startup in the “influencer” economy, formally trained in mathematics and philosophy at university but has boned up on various aspects of computer programming that he needs to be effective. User interface design and a couple of other specific areas are of direct interest to his startup, and he has made himself conversant with these areas without having to formally train in them at university. When I suggested to him that he get some formal training in computer science, he rejected the idea outright, saying that it was much more efficient for him to just get informal certificates and training in the aspects of computer programming that he needs most in his neck of the woods. To me, the logical conclusion is—the inescapable fact is that computer programming is not going to go away any time soon; all that is going to happen is that the need to program a computer is going to become a mainstream part of a worker’s job, much like familiarity with basic word processing or spreadsheets is already indispensable.
Many employers are responding to the needs of the evolving job market by attempting to make it more accessible for their employees to learn to code. Google, where Reich delivered his speech, has initiatives designed to engage and teach programming to anyone who may be interested. Schools the world over have been working to introduce coding early during a child’s schooling.
Once coding is demystified, people will realise that it is but a simple skill of the expression of logical commands that they can learn. The future of work will not be about machines replacing humans, but about humans and machines working in tandem. Engineers will need to develop exceptional skills in collaboration, communication, and critical thinking to work effectively alongside intelligent systems. Understanding the limitations and biases of AI will be crucial for ensuring ethical and responsible development. The human touch will remain crucial in areas that require creativity, adaptability, and complex problem-solving. Engineers who specialise in niche domains like user experience design, data science, and blockchain technology will hold a distinct advantage.
One can see the need to be able to write code in almost any profession. Wired cites the example of an Indian origin postdoctoral researcher in biology who has realised that she needs to code to get her laboratory work done. She had reams of data that came out of her lab experiments but found it both annoying and limiting that she needed to go to someone with coding skills each time she needed to array and make sense of the data. The lady has now enrolled in an introductory programming class so that she can now do her job without being limited by her lack of ability to massage and manipulate her lab data as needed, since, as she says, she can’t manually look through 15,000 data points any longer.
Maybe my new year’s resolution should be to enroll in the nearest academy to brush up on my coding skills.
The author is technology consultant and venture capitalist.
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